Clear Thinking
See through confusion, resolve misunderstandings, recognize your own blind spots, and align your actions with what you care most about.
Starting Out
Giving shape to something you already feel.
Formal Logic
The structure of reasoning itself. When arguments fail here, it is because of their shape, not their content.
1 The Arrow Only Points One Way
F001Affirming the Consequent
F002Denying the Antecedent
F003Commutation of Conditionals
F177Affirming a Disjunct
F055Equivocation
2 Sorting Things into Boxes
F011Fallacy of the Undistributed Middle
F012Illicit Major
F013Illicit Minor
F014Fallacy of Four Terms
F176Affirmative Conclusion from Negative Premise
F211Fallacy of Exclusive Premises
3 Compass Readings
P001Litany of Tarski
P002Litany of Gendlin
P003Litany of Occam
P006Rationalist Taboo
35 The Architecture of Logic
F388Modal Scope Fallacy
F285Quantifier Shift Fallacy
F400Negative Conclusion from Affirmative Premises
F311Type-Token Confusion
F267Proving Too Much
Everyday Reasoning
The patterns that show up most often in conversation. Recognizing them makes disagreements feel less confusing.
4 Seeing the Person, Missing the Point
F020Ad Hominem
F035Ad Hominem Abusive
F036Ad Hominem Circumstantial
F037Tu Quoque
F038Tone Argument
F004Courtier's Reply
F058Argument from Age
5 The Strongest Version
F113Straw Man
P004Ideological Turing Test
P005Steelmanning
P029Seeking Disconfirmation
6 The Escape Hatch
F039Begging the Question
F171Ad Hoc Rescue
F403No True Scotsman
F107Moving the Goal Posts
F221Fallacy Fork
17 Holding the Line
F189Defensiveness Fallacy
F195Essentializing Fallacy
F194Epistemic Fallacy
F215Fixed Pie Fallacy
F169Accident
F193E for Effort Fallacy
Evidence
What counts as good evidence? When has someone actually shown what they claim to show?
7 The Weight of Evidence
F105Burden of Proof Fallacy
F106Argument from Ignorance
F049Shifting Burden of Proof
F050Argument from Incredulity
F051Argument from Silence
12 The Story vs. The Data
F082Hasty Generalization
F086Anecdotal Evidence
F229Generalization from Fictional Evidence
F213False Precision
F214File Drawer Problem
29 Measuring What Matters (and What Does Not)
F385McNamara Fallacy
F281Paralysis of Analysis
F270Perfect Solution Fallacy
36 Duty to the Real
F201Job's Comforter Fallacy
F204Legal Realism Fallacy
F307Teleological Fallacy
F278Omnipotence Paradox
F273Proving a Negative
Cause and Effect
We see patterns and want to explain them. Sometimes the explanation we reach for is not the right one.
11 Looking for Causes
F047Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc
F048Cum Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc
F218Fake Causality
F216Final Cause Fallacy
F188Anthropomorphic Fallacy
23 Correlation Is Not a Story
F008Correlation Implies Causation
F083Reverse Causation
F084Confounding Variable
F085Spurious Correlation
F274Post Hoc Medicine
27 When Explanations Explain Nothing
F235Homunculus Fallacy
F289Semantic Stopsign
F305Tautology
F310Turtles All the Way Down
F382Just-So Story
F280Overexplanation
Language and Definitions
Words can mean different things in different contexts. Sometimes that ambiguity hides important distinctions.
28 The Fog Machine
F268Proof by Verbosity
F269Proof by Intimidation
F287Smoke Screen
F288Sophistical Refutation
F282Passive Voice Fallacy
31 The Map Is Not the Territory
F387Mind Projection Fallacy
F239Illusion of Transparency
F240Impact Bias
F197Loss Aversion Fallacy
F277Pathetic Fallacy
32 Definitions as Weapons
F265Persuasive Definition
F306Taxation is Theft
F276Package Deal Fallacy
F308Tone Policing
F279Olfactory Rhetoric
47 The Words Do the Arguing
F027Glittering Generality
F028Name-Calling
F029Labeling
F150Euphemism/Dysphemism
F151Alphabet Soup
Appeals and Authority
We are moved by more than logic alone. Tradition, nature, authority, emotion -- these matter, but not always in the ways we think.
8 Because I Said So
F053Proof by Assertion
F043Ad Nauseam
F040Ad Baculum
F173Ad Mysteriam
F172Ad Misericordiam
9 Everybody's Doing It
F041Ad Populum
F042Appeal to Common Practice
F046Appeal to Wealth
F187Appeal to Flattery
F175Affective Death Spiral
10 Where It Came From
F032Genetic Fallacy
F022Appeal to Nature
F023Appeal to Tradition
F024Appeal to Novelty
F034Chronological Snobbery
F196Etymological Fallacy
F033Association Fallacy
16 Who Said It Matters
F174Ad Verecundiam
F045Nobel Disease
F044Galileo Gambit
F052Reductio ad Nazium
50 Borrowed Credibility
F367Ipse Dixit
F369Studies Show Fallacy
F374Borrowed Authority
F375Brand Worship
Numbers, Chance, and Statistics
Our intuitions about probability and statistics often mislead us. The patterns here are subtle but common.
18 The Gambler's Brain
F061Gambler's Fallacy
F062Hot Hand Fallacy
F063Inverse Gambler's Fallacy
F067Hoyle's Fallacy
F076Texas Sharpshooter
19 Base Rates and Gut Feelings
F068Representativeness Heuristic
F059Base Rate Fallacy
F060Conjunction Fallacy
F079Availability Heuristic
F286Recency Bias
24 The Data Alchemists
F089Overfitting
F090Data Dredging
F396Multiple Comparisons Fallacy
F009Regression to the Mean
F087Reification
37 The Numbers Don't Lie (But the Framing Does)
F097Misleading Statistics
F098Percentage Fallacy
F099Absolute vs Relative Risk
F100Base Rate Neglect
F101Simpson's Paradox
Cognitive Biases
The shortcuts your brain takes without asking permission. Not bugs -- features that sometimes fire in the wrong context.
14 Wishing It Were True
F025Appeal to Consequences
F031Appeal to Closure
F030Appeal to Heaven
F191Divine Fallacy
F230God of the Gaps
F057Wisdom of Repugnance
20 The Courtroom in Your Head
F064Prosecutor's Fallacy
F065Defense Attorney's Fallacy
F066Sally Clark Fallacy
F384Ludic Fallacy
F203Jury Nullification Fallacy
21 Seeing What Survived
F070Biased Sample
F071Selection Bias
F072Survivorship Bias
F075Cherry Picking
F077Streetlight Effect
25 Judging Yesterday
F233Historian's Fallacy
F234Historical Inevitability
F272Presentism
F399Nothing New Under the Sun
F392Moral Luck
30 Your Mind on Groups
F236Identity Fallacy
F241In-Group Bias
F381Information Cascade
F401Not Invented Here
F290Scientist's Fallacy
38 Seeing Patterns in Static
F102Clustering Illusion
F103Confirmation Bias in Data Interpretation
F104Anchoring Bias in Estimation
F015Law of Small Numbers
F325Regression Fallacy
45 The Comfort of Familiar Walls
F130Filter Bubble
F131Echo Chamber Effect
F132Information Overload Fallacy
F134Clickbait Fallacy
48 Your Side, Right or Wrong
F372Blind Loyalty
F373Blood is Thicker than Water
F141Othering
F019Cry Bullying
F021Kafkatrapping
52 The Weight of What Already Is
F208Status Quo Bias
F156Default Bias
F368Appeal to Antiquity
F379Chesterton's Fence
F380Chesterton's Fence Reversal
53 The Person You Imagine Everyone to Be
F206Typical Mind Fallacy
F207Wishful Thinking
F026Thought Police
Rhetoric and Persuasion
The more sophisticated patterns. Some are deliberate tactics; others are traps we fall into without noticing.
13 Apples and Oranges
F212False Equivalence
F192Double Standard
F054Relative Privation
F007Whataboutism
F056Two Wrongs Make a Right
15 The Meta-Game
F219Fallacy Abuse
F220Fallacy Misidentification
F217Fully General Counterargument
F16710,000 Hour Rule Misapplication
22 Too Simple, Too Soon
F266Oversimplified Cause
F073Overgeneralization
F074Overwhelming Exception
F271Privileging the Hypothesis
F376Butterfly Effect Misapplication
26 The Moral Ledger
F391Moral Licensing
F390Moral High Ground Fallacy
F389Moral Equivalence
F393Moralistic Fallacy
F394Mortification
34 Hidden Costs and Invisible Tradeoffs
F275Parable of the Broken Window
F198Lump of Labor Fallacy
F309Trickle-Down Economics Fallacy
F200Infotainment Fallacy
40 The Closed Loop
F157Disciplinary Blinders
F158Esoteric Knowledge
F159Non-Recognition
F160Deliberate Ignorance
F161Brainwashing Fantasy
F312Unfalsifiability
41 Shutting Down the Conversation
F162MYOB (Mind Your Own Business)
F163No Discussion
F164Oops! Fallacy
F165Just Do It
F166Finish the Job
42 When the Game Is Rigged Before It Starts
F404Sealioning
F108JAQing Off
F109Concern Trolling
F110Tone Trolling
F111Mala Fides
F112Gaslighting
43 Flooding the Zone
F016Gish Gallop
F114Firehose of Falsehood
F115Thought-Terminating Cliche
F116Sloganeering
F117Weasel Words
F118Loaded Language
F402Suppressed Evidence
44 The Middle Must Be Right
F386Middle Ground Fallacy
F122Bothsidesism
F123Balance Fallacy
F124Golden Mean Fallacy
F119Motte and Bailey
F120Strategic Equivocation
F121Sanewashing
49 The Pressure to Act Now
F125Politician's Fallacy
F126TINA (There Is No Alternative)
F370Technological Solutionism
54 Picking the Worst to Prove Your Point
F128Nutpicking
F129Weak Man Fallacy
F127Dog-Whistle Politics
F018Calling "Cards"
Science and Society
How reasoning patterns play out in research, media, politics, and the stories we tell about progress.
33 Science Myths and Folk Wisdom
F199Learning Styles Myth
F291Right Brain/Left Brain Myth
F395Mozart Effect
F397Murphy's Law (misapplied)
F292Replication Crisis Issues
39 The Research That Reaches You
F091Publication Bias
F092File Drawer Effect
F093Funding Bias
F094Citation Bias
F095Outcome Reporting Bias
F096HARKing
46 Internet Laws and Their Misuse
F135Godwin's Law
F136Poe's Law
F137Cunningham's Law
F138Betteridge's Law
F140Reductio ad Hitlerum
51 When the Map Replaces the Territory
F378Campbell's Law
F314Zero-Sum Thinking
55 Rights, Principles, and Civic Shortcuts
F152Free Speech Fallacy
F153NIMBY (Not In My Backyard)
F313Worse Problems Fallacy
F371Blame Game